Maybe So, Maybe Not

“I’m just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round

I really love to watch them roll

No longer riding on the merry-go-round

I just had to let it go“

-John Lennon

When I managed the Purchasing function for a large food company, a market adage we often quoted was, “The best cure for high prices is high prices.” It’s another way of saying the pendulum only swings so far before changing direction.

If you live in a location with four seasons, you’ve experienced this. There are days when it’s too cold to go out and get the mail without a coat and gloves, and then, before long, it’s too hot to be outdoors. 

Changing Lattitudes, Changing Attitudes. 

Extremes get to us. When this happens, I often remember Dylan’s wise lyric, 

“They say the darkest hour 

is right before the dawn.” 

This applies to our country’s political environment.  

I recall reading an article from the late 2000s that predicted a multi-decade dearth in the success of Republican candidates due to lasting changes in social preferences and population demographics. 

See what I mean?

The Chinese Farmer

Recently, a friend relayed a story, “The Chinese Farmer,” which illustrated that every situation we face is pregnant with its opposite.

The Chinese Farmer

A farmer’s horse runs away. His neighbors say, “How terrible!” 

The farmer replies, “Maybe so, maybe not.”

The next day, the horse returns with several wild horses. The neighbors exclaim, “How wonderful!” 

Again, the farmer says, “Maybe so, maybe not.”

The farmer’s son tries to tame one of the wild horses and breaks his leg. “How awful!” say the neighbors. “Maybe so, maybe not,” responds the farmer.

Soon after, military officials come to draft young men for war, but they pass over the farmer’s son because of his broken leg. “How fortunate!” the neighbors declare. 

The farmer gives his usual response: “Maybe so, maybe not.”

A Taoist principle reminds us that we cannot truly know whether events in our lives are ultimately good or bad, as each situation contains the seeds of future circumstances. This has played out many times in my life in ways I could never have anticipated.

Trump 2.0

Depending on one’s political stripes, Trump is either the second coming or the Prince of Darkness. Neither is true. Throughout our nation’s history, the times have made the leader more often than the leader has made the times. We are here!

Setting the stage for the hyperbole and chaos of our 47^th President is the era we live in, which is characterized by historic declines in institutional trust. 

Data compiled by Claude 4.0: Gallup Polls (1958-2024), Pew Research Center, National Election. 

Trump has tapped into this dissatisfaction and molded it into a formidable political force. His strategy could be summarized as “tear it down.”  His power lies in the fact that many of our institutions are in desperate need of reform. Our medical costs are the highest in the world, yet our outcomes are mediocre when compared to those of other developed nations. Same thing for education. Science has lost its authority;  Organized religion has lost its sway; the media is “fake news.” 

I could go on.

According to Francis Fukuyama, “We live in an era of national rebellion built around the idea that America’s technocratic and professional elite ignored the interests of the majority.” Trump filled a leadership vacuum. How else does one explain the ascendancy of such chaos?

My progressive friends worry that Trump and DOGE will ruin our country.

Maybe so, maybe not!

“The Media Is the Message.”

Baby boomers ushered in a new social ethic that can be summarized as more me now. Stodgy old institutions were perceived as hindering individual freedoms and fulfillment. 

Now that the dog has caught the car, what do we do?

Canadian communication theorist Marshall McLuhan coined the phrase “The medium is the message” in 1964, and sure enough, social media is the message today. In about thirty seconds, one can find an affinity group for any predilection they may have, along with “facts” to back the case. Walter Cronkite, RIP. Today’s news is delivered by internet influencers who strive for nothing more than attention, and they’re getting it! Our social media phenomenon is little more than “selfing masquerading as connection” (Maria Popova)

The Fourth Turning

I’ve previously written about Neil Howe’s The 4^th Turning here. Historical evidence suggests that society undergoes four broad cycles, each lasting approximately a generation. The Fourth Turning is the culmination of the first three. It is the era when Humpty Dumpty has his great fall. We are living the 4^th Turning.

For those who see this as the winter of democracy, have faith. Every situation is pregnant with its opposite. The First Turning will come next. It often hosts the next “greatest generation.” Institutions will be rebuilt and gain growing respect. There will be a resurgence in moral values. Early signs of this are already present among young adults. 

These are uncertain times. Chaos reigns! However, I am confident in America and its people. Unfortunately, we need patience. Things take time. Our current era will continue to be chaotic and painful. Our economy will likely worsen (perhaps significantly) before it improves. But is this the sunset of the American dream? 

Maybe so, maybe not!

Recently, I phoned a high-school buddy to see how he was getting on after a stroke. He droned on for 30 minutes about the ills of America. Weird! We’ve known each other for 60 years, and until recently, social and political issues never came up. 

My advice to friends is always the same: If the news upsets you, stop following it. After giving such advice, I’m sometimes accused of checking out; nothing could be further from the truth.  Having faced many difficult situations in life (as we all do), I’ve learned to either focus my energy on positive actions where I can have influence or accept that things are as they are. 

I am way more concerned about our country’s runaway debt than our politics. But what can I do about it? None of our elected officials care. Elon Musk, a man who founded three companies that transformed their industries, failed in his attempt to make a material dent in the ballooning costs of government. Now he’s exiting stage right. I guess he figures it’s easier to land a crew on Mars. 

Acceptance is a superpower. Unless one honestly believes they can take productive actions to improve things, the best course of action is to chill the F— out and enjoy life. 

Lennon’s bandmate, George Harrison, nicely sums things up: 

“All things must pass.”

———————————————————

I am currently writing a second book, titled The Secret Within. Installments can be found here. 

Former blog posts can be found here by subject category and here chronologically. 

You can subscribe to my latest posts by filling out your email address at the bottom of this page.  

My first book, Towards A Life Well-Lived, can be purchased by clicking this link. Proceeds from sales are donated to Peace In Schools, a Portland, Oregon-based organization that supports mindfulness training in high schools.